Nielsen Service To Distend Upfronts Like A Mouse-Filled Snake’s Belly
AdWeek reports from the war-torn front lines of the the network/advertiser battleground, where a new element is preparing to change the rules of engagement forever.
A couple of weeks ago on the podcast I reported on Neilsen’s new rating service, which will offer viewing figures for 30 second increments. Advertisers have been asking for this for years, while network executives have been asking that it doesn’t happen for about the same amount of time. The obvious problem, from their point of view, is that once Procter and Gamble has a solid figure for how many of the eyeballs they’re paying for are gone during that commercial for Downey fabric softener, they can renegotiate.
Meanwhile the annual UPFRONT event is coming up in June. This is the festival of ad sales in which the networks bring in ad people and give them free liquor, food and access to the talent to try to get them to commit their funds in advance, before the new shows are even finished. I can’t blame them for all the free stuff, either. Say you’re NBC last May, and here’s your pitch: “We have this very expensive show coming up called HEROES. It’s, uh… it’s like LOST, only it doesn’t take place on an island, it doesn’t have anyone from that show, and no one is lost. But it FEELS like Lost. Give me $100,000 a minute for it.” It’s nightmarish.
The new ratings system was supposed to be up now, but last-minute technical problems are preventing the debut until mid-may. I’m guessing here, but the technical problems may have included network bribe money clogging up the computer vents. So most people believe that the system will have no effect on THIS year’s upfronts.
“It won’t affect this year’s upfront,” said Sean Cunningham, president, the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau, which represents over 100 cable networks. “There isn’t any reason for any of my members to opt in until all of the fixes are in.”
But CBS wants to negotiate ad deals in this year’s upfront using commercial ratings data—and is prepared to do so if advertisers feel the new system is ready to go—said David Poltrack, president of CBS Visions and the network’s top researcher. “We’re not looking for consensus, and we’re prepared to go it alone if buyers say go for it,” he said.
Some are hopeful the new system’s glitches will be worked out in time for the negotiations, which begin in June. But the strongest consensus is that, because some of the networks may try to use the new data as currency while others may not, this year’s upfront could be the most confusing since Nielsen shifted from the meter/diary-based methodology to the people meter technique in 1987.
“It all points to a very long upfront for 2007,” said Lyle Schwartz, evp, director of broadcast research at WPP’s Mediaedge:cia and an early proponent of switching to commercial ratings.
I think that whether it happens this year or in the coming years, the whole house of cards is coming down. It’s going to be all reality shows with heavy product placements pretty soon. Gird your loins; and consider taking up reading as your primary entertainment source.